No other team had as clear of goals in the offseason as Toronto FC: Defense, defense, defense. After conceding 58 goals in 2015, the joint-highest in MLS, TFC’s objectives were clear. They snatched up four veteran MLSers in Clint Irwin, Drew Moor, Steven Beitashour and Will Johnson, all of whom either play in back or, in Johnson’s case, add some defensive bite to to the midfield. I wondered before the season whether Toronto’s tactical set-up caused their leaky defense, though, and not individual players. It turns out Vanney has significantly tweaked that, as well. Through four games TFC has sat much deeper and looked to play direct passes when they regain possession. While their defense does in fact look stronger this new approach hasn’t generated much in the way of attack. In this article I’ll look at some of the factors contributing to their offensive struggles.
Numbers - Greg Vanney has positioned his team in a much lower block than in 2015. Since Toronto is starting the season on an eight game road trip this isn't particularly shocking. But even compared solely to their away games last season this side has played far more direct. The chart below shows teams’ long ball tendencies with long balls per game on the X axis and long balls as a percentage of the teams’ total passes. The size of the bubble corresponds to the percentage at which they’re completing long balls.
Away from home in 2015 Toronto played 61.6 long balls a game which added up to 16% of their total passes, 12th and 13th in the league, respectively. So far this season this season they’ve played a whopping 79.1 long balls per game equalling 21% of their passes, both good for highest in the league. Additionally, they’re only completing long ball passes at a 37% clip this year versus 47% last season.
Unsurprisingly, an attack so focused on long passes hasn't yielded much in the way of offense. While their 11.3 shots per game isn’t strictly terrible (tied for 13th in MLS), 6.3 of those shots have come from outside the box. Taken together, this means TFC hasn’t generated much in attack and the shots they do take aren’t great quality.
Playing pretty possession-oriented soccer can be overrated but this level of bunkering from TFC is alarming. With the talent available to Greg Vanney this squad should be able to better hold onto the ball and ultimately create much more dangerous chances. So the question remains: can Toronto FC play on the front foot?
Tactics - Vanney’s switch to a bunker-and-counter game plan has often left Giovinco isolated upfield. He has still managed 5.3 shots per 90 minutes (tied for second in MLS) but this isolation up top has limited playmaking opportunities for the Italian striker. Hoofing it up to the Atomic Ant and praying may occasionally produce magic but doesn’t make the best use of his abilities.
When Toronto FC has trailed this season they’ve shown that they can in fact come out of their shell and push up the field. The second half of the match versus NYCFC, for instance, featured more gradual build-ups without hoofing the ball to Giovinco. Here’s a chance TFC created for Marky Delgado:
Even though Delgado ends up pushing the effort well wide, this sequence is promising for Toronto. TFC created this chance by committing numbers forward and letting Giovinco act as a playmaker. Because NYCFC was so preoccupied on the Italian’s presence they left loads of space for Beitashour, Johnson and Delgado to work in. Exploiting the enormous focus opposing teams give the Giovinco is only possible when he has teammates pushed up field alongside him.
Additionally, a healthy Jozy Altidore will certainly help Toronto maintain possession and build attacks. Where Giovinco has regularly turned up field when receiving long passes, Jozy will hold the ball up and look to play in teammates. More than likely, Jozy will play up top in a 4-2-3-1 while Giovinco plays as a second striker beneath him like we saw at the end of the loss against Sporting Kansas City. In that brief appearance, Jozy showed how he can incorporate teammates and build attacks. Down a man in Colorado, he was much less effective and couldn't regularly find anybody to lay the ball off to. Greg Vanney and co. are hoping TFC will see more of the former and less of the latter.
Though Toronto’s attacking prospects look promising, defending higher up the field is still a question mark. Tasked with pressing high against NYCFC, Toronto gave up the kind of easy chances that plagued their 2015 season. Against Colorado their backline struggled to play an offside trap, allowing Luis Solignac run alone on goal several times. Though many of these runs were close calls and some were called offside, it's the backline's job to make sure they aren't particularly close. If TFC can't learn to defend higher up the field and continue to rely on playing in a low block, fans and analysts won't be able to point to the players anymore.
Conclusion - If Toronto FC intends to challenge for silverware this season they’ll need to learn to play on the front foot. Through four games they have yet to prove they’re capable of that. Fortunately four games is just four games and MLS’s forgiving regular season gives them plenty of time to figure out an identity. If, say, 15 games into the season TFC is still sitting deep and launching hopeful balls to Giovinco they have a serious problem on their hands. Until then it will be interesting to see how they integrate a fully healthy Altidore in the squad and, come May 7th, how drastically Vanney alters the gameplan at BMO Field.
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