Match Analysis: Toronto FC 1 - 2 Portland Timbers

The final match of Toronto FC's eight game road trip came Sunday in a close loss to the Portland Timbers. Through that initial stretch TFC largely defied preseason expectations both in the style of their play and their results - they compiled 11 points from 7 games on the back of a direct, defense-first approach. Against Portland, however, they flipped the script and played on the front foot in a new look 4-4-2 diamond. The Timbers have disappointed early in 2016 despite playing mostly the same players and system that won them MLS Cup last season. They eeked out a win through a coupl

Here I'm going to look at how Toronto controlled possession but failed to create dangerous chances while Portland

The 4-4-2 Diamond - So often a pregame lineup graphic will show teams lining up with a diamond midfield and nearly every time it ends up as a flat 4-4-2 with one CM venturing forward slightly more often. This happens often with USMNT lineups, for example. So it came as a surprise when TFC actually, truthfully played a diamond midfield with Michael Bradley at the base and Tsubasa Endoh at the point. More surprising is that it worked pretty darn well.

Toronto FC's Long Ball Problem

No other team had as clear of goals in the offseason as Toronto FC: Defense, defense, defense. After conceding 58 goals in 2015, the joint-highest in MLS, TFC’s objectives were clear.  They snatched up four veteran MLSers in Clint Irwin, Drew Moor, Steven Beitashour and Will Johnson, all of whom either play in back or, in Johnson’s case, add some defensive bite to to the midfield. I wondered before the season whether Toronto’s tactical set-up caused their leaky defense, though, and not individual players. It turns out Vanney has significantly tweaked that, as well. Through four games TFC has sat much deeper and looked to play direct passes when they regain possession. While their defense does in fact look stronger this new approach hasn’t generated much in the way of attack. In this article I’ll look at some of the factors contributing to their offensive struggles.

Numbers - Greg Vanney has positioned his team in a much lower block than in 2015. Since Toronto is starting the season on an eight game road trip this isn't particularly shocking. But even compared solely to their away games last season this side has played far more direct. The chart below shows teams’ long ball tendencies with long balls per game on the X axis and long balls as a percentage of the teams’ total passes. The size of the bubble corresponds to the percentage at which they’re completing long balls.

Away from home in 2015 Toronto played 61.6 long balls a game which added up to 16% of their total passes, 12th and 13th in the league, respectively. So far this season this season they’ve played a whopping 79.1 long balls per game equalling 21% of their passes, both good for highest in the league. Additionally, they’re only completing long ball passes at a 37% clip this year versus 47% last season.

Match Analysis: Toronto FC @ New York Red Bulls

The opening game of the 2016 MLS season saw two self-styled Eastern Conference favorites battle for early leverage in the Supporters Shield standings. Though it’s foolish to place too much weight on Week 1 results, I will still look at the matchup and try to draw several conclusions about the upcoming season.

Toronto FC - For most of the match, Toronto elected sit deep and play direct balls to Sebastian Giovinco when they recovered possession. With Michael Bradley operating deeper in the midfield, the Italian forward often found himself isolated from the rest of his team. Giovinco didn’t try and hold the ball up and wait for support, either. His instinct was to turn up field immediately when the ball fell to him. Without another forward threat to deal with, New York’s centerbacks could easily key in on Giovinco and minimize his threat in transition. Though the Atomic Ant is frequently capable of brilliance, this kind of hoof-and-pray tactic was a little concerning from Toronto.  

This sequence shows just how aggressive Giovinco’s thinking was in the game. The reigning MVP pulls off an audacious dribble and, despite Lovitz and Endoh making runs on either side of him, decides to shoot from the center circle.

Running Through the 6 With my Woes

Toronto FC's Defensive Troubles

Despite making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, Toronto FC’s 2015 season can hardly be viewed as a success. In a league where 60% of teams qualify for the postseason, merely making it there doesn’t cut it. Their regular season record wasn't spectacular, either. TFC spent more on wages than any other MLS team and had a perfectly average record to show for it (15 wins, 15 losses, 4 draws and a goal differential of zero.) 

On the bright side, Toronto tied for second-most goals scored in MLS with 58. Unfortunately, TFC posted the joint-worst goals against total in the league, also with 58. Their defense clearly weighed down their prolific attack. Placing the blame solely on the Toronto’s back four, however, would be unfair. The unstable shape and composition of the midfield lead to as many conceded goals as the shaky backline. Individuals and Greg Vanney's fluctuating tactical plan are both to blame for the team's unsound midfield. Here I will look at some of the team's disorganization and what they can improve on heading into the 2016 season.

When operating as a 4-4-2 - TFC’s most common formation - the central midfield pairing of Michael Bradley and Benoit Cheyrou often left the back line exposed. Though a skillful passer and dribbler, Cheyrou lacks the athleticism to cover Bradley and the fullbacks while they’re pushed high up the field. Here’s the first goal in that began the rout in Toronto’s first ever playoff game:

Clearly Cheyrou isn’t exclusively at fault here but his indecision and lack of pace put his centerbacks in a nearly impossible situation. Miscommunication between Cheyrou and Jackson caused neither player to make a serious challenge on the ball or track their respective runners. Ultimately, they are both taken out of the play when Reo-Coker plays a simple pass out left to Piatti.

With how high up Toronto had pushed, Williams and Kantari shouldn’t have dropped so deep. Doing so left them disconnected from the midfield and allowed Piatti and Bernier ample room to operate. This is indicative of poor communication between the centerbacks and the rest of the team while in possession and left them vulnerable to a counterattack before they had even turned the ball over. Without a wider view of the field it’s impossible to tell where they were when the play started so this criticism may not be fair.

Collen Warner, Toronto FC’s other primary defensive midfield option, played as more of a prototypical #6 than Cheyrou. Warner was more willing to get stuck in a hard tackle or forcefully break up a potential counterattack. Despite playing only the ninth most minutes on the team, he lead Toronto with seven yellow cards. This is not to say Warner completely solidified TFC’s defense. His poor marking and positioning often lead to quality scoring chances for the opposition. Here, Warner loses Oduro when the striker simply holds up his run to open himself up for a cutback in the box from Romero: