Match Analysis: Toronto FC 1 - 2 Portland Timbers

The final match of Toronto FC's eight game road trip came Sunday in a close loss to the Portland Timbers. Through that initial stretch TFC largely defied preseason expectations both in the style of their play and their results - they compiled 11 points from 7 games on the back of a direct, defense-first approach. Against Portland, however, they flipped the script and played on the front foot in a new look 4-4-2 diamond. The Timbers have disappointed early in 2016 despite playing mostly the same players and system that won them MLS Cup last season. They eeked out a win through a coupl

Here I'm going to look at how Toronto controlled possession but failed to create dangerous chances while Portland

The 4-4-2 Diamond - So often a pregame lineup graphic will show teams lining up with a diamond midfield and nearly every time it ends up as a flat 4-4-2 with one CM venturing forward slightly more often. This happens often with USMNT lineups, for example. So it came as a surprise when TFC actually, truthfully played a diamond midfield with Michael Bradley at the base and Tsubasa Endoh at the point. More surprising is that it worked pretty darn well.

Coming into Sunday’s game Toronto played more long balls than any other team in MLS, averaging 81.9 a game. Against Portland they played a mere 30. This was due in part to how much space TFC found in central midfield. Playing a true diamond formation essentially gave them four CMs who were consistently capable of finding space matched up against Portland’s midfield three. In fact, 33% of Toronto’s possession was built down the middle, much higher than Toronto’s average of 26% and the league average of 25.2%. Playing Michael Bradley as a dedicated DM also aided build up play as he was always deep to receive the ball from Clint Irwin and the CBs instead of switching off with Will Johnson.

This more fluid system for Toronto came at somewhat of a defensive price however. Although they limited Portland to just 8 shots (who averages twice that at home this year) there were a couple of concerning signs for Greg Vanney’s men.

Diego Valeri passes received, courtesy of fourfourtwo.com

Diego Valeri - The Argentine playmaker drifted all over the field and founds tons of space behind Toronto’s wider midfielders. With that much space to operate, Valeri, who average the most crosses per 90 minutes in MLS this season with 10.8 but has yet to register an assist with one, could instead try more efficient methods of working the ball into the box. On Portland’s first goal, Valeri plays a simple give-and-go with Darren Mattocks that catches three TFC players ball watching.

These are the kinds of defensive mental lapses that Toronto believed they’d left behind last season. The diamond formation isn’t directly responsible for conceding this goal - it’s more down to mixed up marking assignments between Perquis and Beitashour - but the lack of extra central midfield cover from Toronto allowed Valeri to often cut in from the wings like this.

TFC’s wasteful shooting - Though TFC effectively built up play through midfield and got the ball to their forwards in the final third, they generated surprisingly few dangerous chances. Of their 18 shots only 5 came from inside the box and 4 of those were headers. If you look at Toronto’s final third passing map you can see clearly how few passes they completed into Portland’s penalty area. This is in part due to the low block the Timbers played in and partly due to sequences like these [PIC] Four Timbers’ are concentrated on the Italian striker as he tees up a shot. Meanwhile, Jozy and Endoh Though this may be the soccer equivalent of Steph Curry pulling up from ten feet behind the 3 point line with a defender in his face, the returns are much lower here. Even Giovinco can’t expected to reliably score from 30 yards out.

Situations like these where players choose the ambitious shot over laying the ball off to teammates in the box are prime examples of what analytics types are talking about when it comes to shot quality. Often when shot quality arguments are brought up (analysts saying teams should take more shots near the center of the box) they’re dismissed with the common sense rebuttal along the lines of “well if those shots were available wouldn’t players take already them more?” This definitely applies to some scenarios - if an opponent’s penalty area is packed with defenders a desperate pop from long range might be your only chance. But far too often that rebuttal doesn’t hold up.

Giovinco took four non-free kick shots in this game. On all four occasions he had other options available to him - generally either Jozy or Endoh running off the opposing CBs into the box. Timing and weighting those passes may be difficult but it’s borne out in the numbers that it’s more likely than scoring off those long range blasts (Gio’s only scored one goal off of 32 shots outside the box this season, for reference.) Portland's backline and Diego Chara surely deserve credit for forcing Giovinco into these inefficient shots and staying compact enough to not allow easy throughballs to Altidore. Overall, though, these hopeful attempts handicapped Toronto's attack .

Granted, if Greg Vanney intends to push forward with this set up, Jonathon Osorio will presumably take Endoh’s place as the tip of the diamond. The Canadian midfielder hasn’t shown to be an amazing no. 10 during his brief appearances at the spot but should be an improvement creatively over the rookie Endoh. Toronto should hope that this would lead to higher percentage shots coming from inside the box.

Conclusion - After bunkering and counterattacking for the first 7 games of the season TFC may have shown a glimpse on how they intend to play at BMO Field. With the talent available to Greg Vanney, fans expect this more proactive style. It will be interesting to see going forward if they can stay solid at the back while playing a diamond midfield.

Despite playing most of the game on the back foot, Portland proved their solid defense, anchored by the eternally underappreciated Diego Chara, can still prevent high quality chances while the attacking force of Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi can get the job done up top.