While their attack has been decent - 8th in the league with 1.45 xG for per game - their defense has been dreadful. Through 12 games they’ve compiled a 1.97 xG against average, comfortably worst in the league. It’s early in the season and 12 games is a small sample size but giving up nearly 2 expected goals a game is awful. Over a full season it would be the the worst mark in all six years of American Soccer Analysis’s expected goal charts, beating out last year’s NYCFC season by 0.15. While Orlando have only conceded 1.58 actual goals per game, 6th worst in the league, their advanced numbers are rather concerning. To put it frankly: going into the Copa America break they’ve been bad and lucky. In this article I’m going to examine some of the factors that have contributed to Orlando City’s poor defense.
Offensive Positioning - During their time in MLS Orlando has played very patient soccer. They work hard to keep the ball, preferring short passes and carefully working the ball up the field. Out of possession they’re equally as patient and allow opponents to come to them rather than forcing the issue like the New York Red Bulls. Jared Young’s proactivity metric found Orlando as one of the most passive teams in MLS last season and, while more direct this year, still in the same quadrant for 2016. This combination of patient build up and low pressure defense poses a number of problems for Orlando defensively.
Gradually working the ball up the field requires pushing numbers forward to give the player on the ball more passing options. The more teammates that push forward the more exposed a team is in the event of a turnover. Orlando City frequently falls victim to this as their fullbacks love to join the attack and make runs into the box. Other teams like Philadelphia and the Red Bulls combat this by pressing the opponent immediately following a turnover, hoping to snuff out a counterattack before it begins. Orlando, however, opt to fall back when defending counters and allow their opponents to freely advance the ball all the way to their penalty box.
With so few players back to defend opposing players are able to easily connect passes into Orlando’s penalty area. This graph shows that opponents of Orlando connect passes inside their penalty area at the second highest percentage in the league at 45.79%. It’s near impossible to prevent quality shots when allowing your opposition to complete nearly half of their passes into your penalty area.
The New York Red Bulls shredded Orlando in transition in their last meeting to the tune of 10 shots on target. There were well over a dozen sequences where Orlando conceded a dangerous chance following a turnover and I’ve picked one out here.
Here Brek Shea send in a cross from the endline with both strikers and wide midfielders in the box. After New York deals with the cross, the ball comes out to Mike Grella. Grella delivers a pass out wide to Lloyd Sam and Orlando are immediately left scrambling. Sam had plenty of time and space to deliver a through ball to a streaking Kljestan moves into the enormous area vacated by Shea and Winter. All the Orlando City defenders and center midfielders allowed the Red Bulls time and space to find these passes.
Orlando doesn’t just struggle defending counterattacks, though. They’ve also had trouble setting themselves up defensively.
Defensive positioning - Even with time to organize Orlando often sets itself up poorly defensively. It took Montreal only four passes to advance the ball from their keeper to an attacker in a 1v1 situation inside Orlando's penalty area.
Following an overhit Orlando pass Impact goalkeeper Evan Busch took his time distributing the ball back out to centerback Wandrille Lefèvre. Cyle Larin looked to press the defender but Lefèvre easily avoided the pressure because other Orlando players stayed back. This gave Lefèvre time to find Johan Venegas (who found space behind an advanced Brek Shea) and in turn flicked the ball onto an unmarked Lucas Ontivero in a prime position to pick a dangerous pass.
Oftentimes Orlando’s forward line and midfield seem like they can’t decide whether or not they want to pressure opponents. This indecision leads to enormous gaps between their lines.
Here against Philadelphia both Larin and Higuita step up to press deep in the Union’s half. After a simple back pass Larin and Higuita freeze - they stop pressing but also fail to drop back, giving Josh Yaro ample time and space to pick a pass. Normally, allowing centerbacks time on the ball is OK if your team is sitting deeper and are well organized. Orlando, here, were neither of those things. The rest of Orlando’s players didn’t step up to press along with Larin and Higuita leaving tons of space for Barnetta to receive the ball and run at the backline.
Barnetta ends up playing a poor pass but this sequence still reflects poorly on Orlando’s defense. A team should never allow a centerback to play such a simple and controlled pass to a playmaker in that much space. If Orlando want to improve their defense for the final two thirds of the MLS season they'll need to seriously look at how they organize their defense.
Conclusion - Fortunately for Orlando City the MLS season is long and forgiving. They have ample time to address their defensive woes and it won’t take much to make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. If the coaching staff don't realize just how bad their defense has been so far, though, they may have a problem on their hands. The raw goal numbers only show Orlando’s defense to be below average rather than historically bad. If Orlando fails to confront their issues and the expected goal numbers catch up to them they may find themselves on the wrong side of that red line come playoff time. It’s near impossible to rack up points letting in 2 goals a game, after all.
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