Is Philadelphia's Rebuild Ahead of Schedule?

Philadelphia's lineup vs. Orlando

Coming off tumultuous 2015 on and off the field, fans and analysts alike assumed the Philadelphia Union were looking to 2016 as a rebuilding year. Most season previews assumed it’d take at least a full season for Earnie Stewart to implement his new system and for the bevy of new signings to gel. Five games into 2016 and the Union have looked more competent than expected. After the 2-0 drubbing away to FC Dallas that seemed to confirm preseason expectations, Philadelphia have put together a solid four game stretch including wins over Columbus, New England and Orlando. So the question is: Is Philadelphia's rebuild ahead of schedule?

In this article I’ll look at some of the aspects of Philadelphia’s new system that have contributed to their promising start (focusing on their most recent game against Orlando) while also examining some more worrisome elements of their game.

Defending - Last Friday Philadelphia stifled Orlando’s build-up play using an aggressive high press. Without Cyle Larin providing a physical presence up top for Orlando, Adrian Heath’s side relied on patient build up play. This played directly into the Union’s hands who pressured Orlando at every turn. This pressure was perhaps most prevalent immediately following Union turnovers.

When the Union lost the ball in Orlando’s half, they generally sought to win it back quickly and forcefully. This kind of pressing is similar to the system notably used by their I-95 rivals, the New York Red Bulls. In the sequence below, Sebastien Le Toux loses the ball near Orlando’s penalty area. Rather than dropping back and reform their defensive shape, the Union looked to prevent the counterattack before it even began.

Jim Curtain’s side made sure their opponents couldn’t find any quick outlets by tightly marking anyone near the ball while pinning Luke Boden against the sideline. When the opposition are scrambling to try and retain possession, they will often become disjointed and defensively vulnerable if they do end up turning the ball over. This pressing helped the Union in two ways: it prevented Orlando from building attacks and created attacking opportunities when Philadelphia successfully won the ball back in Orlando’s half. The Union haven’t yet mastered this pressing system though.

Occasionally the forwards looked to put pressure on the ball while the Union’s deeper midfielders and defenders dropped back. This kind of miscommunication can leave Philadelphia vulnerable like in this sequence against Orlando:

Even though Kevin Molino ends up misplaying the pass out wide the Union will need to limit these kinds of breakdowns if they want to continue playing this system.

Additionally Jim Curtain’s side will struggle playing this kind of defense against opponents who excel at direct play. Columbus, for example, created several dangerous chances from playing long balls up to Kei Kamara who could head the ball down to streaking teammates.

Offense - Creating turnovers in their opponents’ half has generated dangerous chances for the Union but they’ve struggled to generate shots from their own build up play. This is reflected by their middle-of-the-road shots numbers - 13.4 a game which is good for 10th in the league. Their active defense creates more shots than most teams but their regular attack creates fewer. Against Orlando they played patiently, cycling the ball well through midfield but couldn’t turn that possession into shots often enough.

In his limited minutes Roland Alberg has produced a couple promising passes like the one below but hasn’t yet shown the ability to take over a game from the no. 10 spot. If the Union intend to continue with their patient attacking style Alberg will need to dominate games from just outside the box the way Lee Nguyen or Sacha Kljestan can.

Data from americansocceranalysis.com, percentile
among forwards with at least 750 minutes

While CJ Sapong has shown he can hold up the ball as well as any no. 9 in the league the 27-year-old forward still has yet to prove he can be a consistent offensive threat. During his time with the Union he’s only produced .33 xG per 90 minutes on 1.97 shots/90. These put him in a category similar to players like Blas Perez and Will Bruin - certainly serviceable MLS forwards but by no means great. Unless Sapong can take a big step forward this year and learn to the Union are going to have to look elsewhere for their goal scoring. The biggest red flag (as seen on the chart on the right) is his unassisted shot percentage. Among forwards with at least 750 minutes in MLS, only Kevin Doyle and Adam Jahn took a lower percentage of unassisted shots. What this means is that Sapong rarely creates shots for himself and relies heavily on service from teammates. Forwards like this generally can’t dramatically increase their production. This doesn’t bode well for the Union if they’re looking place a heavier offensive burden on Sapong’s shoulders.

Conclusion - The Union have exceeded expectations through the first five games but there are still question marks for the rest of the season. Until they can truly perfect their pressing system and find consistent offense from their forwards Philadelphia won’t match up against MLS’s elite. But for now, that’s OK. They’re already a better team than in 2015 and may yet scrap for a playoff spot. In that sense the rebuild is indeed ahead of schedule but not quite top-of-the-Eastern-Conference ahead of schedule.

Earnie Stewart and Jim Curtain have begun to build an identity in Philadelphia, something the Union have lacked for years. They currently have a decent foundation and several areas where they can clearly improve. If Maurice Edu can return to action this season he’ll help the team’s distribution enormously by replacing the lackluster Brian Carroll. New attackers like Roland Alberg, Ilsinho and Tranquillo Barnetta have yet to show what they’re capable of. Even if only one of those players truly pan out, Philadelphia still have two open DP slots if they're interested in splashing some cash. Overall, this team definitely has reason to be opitimistic.