New York Red Bulls are Gonna be Just Fine (probably)

Early in the 2016 season has seen a number of surprising story lines developing - Columbus, Seattle and Portland all struggle while Colorado, RSL and Philly excel - but nothing comes as quite a shock as the New York Red Bulls occupying the bottom spot of the table. They’ve compiled a whopping 0.43 points per game and their -10 goal differential is 5 goals worse than the next closest team. A season can’t start much worse than Jesse Marsch’s side in 2016. But I believe they’re going to be alright. Their underlying numbers are much closer to 2015 tallies than you might assume.

Yes, their cold start has essentially ruled them out of the Supporters Shield race (they’d need to average and insane 2.2 points per game from here on out to match their 60 points from 2015) but I believe they’ll still make the playoffs and could seriously compete for MLS Cup once they get there.

Numbers courtesy of American Soccer Analysis

The Numbers - The expected goal numbers for NYRB show they’ve, frankly, underperformed like hell. Given the kinds of shots they’ve gotten and conceded they could have a goal difference closer to 2.5, good for 5th in the league. This early in the season all xG numbers are noisy and unreliable but the Red Bulls still clearly stick out. In this article I'll examine how much of this extreme difference is due to luck and how much I believe can be attributed to more tangible factors.

2015 season

Defense - Unsurprisingly they’ve dropped off defensively from 2015. The sale of MLS Defender of the Year candidate Matt Miazga to Chelsea and the constant injury problem at CB has hurt their backline and has forced players to play out of position. In 2015 they had the second most consistent starting XIs in MLS. The 11 Red Bulls who lead the team in minutes played 80.7% of the available minutes last season, trailing only Portland. This season has already been significantly more tumultuous. Using this same metric this season New York is just 13th in the league, ahead of Portland for the biggest dropoff. The Red Bulls’ first four choice centerbacks have all missed time and caused the backline to become far more disjointed than in the 2015 season.

Because of these injuries, the xG Against numbers may undersell the quality of some of the chances New York has conceded. These injuries have forced Jesse Marsch to play fullbacks Chris Duvall and Kemar Lawrence out of position in the middle of defense. While plenty talented fullbacks, Duvall and Lawrence have allowed opponents some chances that natural CBs may not entirely prevent but would at least better contest. Sporting Kansas City’s second goal is a good example:

Duvall, not used to getting bodied by a hyper-physical no. 9, allows Dom Dwyer to receive the ball, turn and fire off a shot undisturbed. A natural centerback would have jostled Dwyer more and forced him into a tougher shot. The xG amount conceded on this chance would already be relatively high but models can't account for defenders performing just this woefully.

Attack - Injuries have plagued New York's defenders far more than their attackers. Here it’s much more difficult to identify exactly why New York are so dramatically underperforming (5 goals versus 10.83 xG.) They have been tied or trailed for 610 of their 630 league minutes so far this season which boosts their overall attacking numbers but that still wouldn't explain the gap. All parts of their attack that scored them a league-leading 62 goals last season seem to still be clicking.

This sequence demonstrates the chemistry that still exists between the Red Bulls’ three attacking mainstays (BWP, Kljestan and Sam.) They've routinely created chances like these this season through smart build up play. Additionally, their high press is still creating attacking opportunities after turnovers.

Perhaps most emblematic of New York’s early troubles is Bradley Wright-Phillips and his xG total versus his actual goal total: 4.74 vs 0. If he were the starting striker of a bigger English team papers like The Daily Mail would run article after article questioning his “confidence.” This gap between expected and actual is so wide though that I wondered if there were some extenuating circumstances that may have ‘juiced’ his numbers to make him seem this wildly unlucky. A missed PK tacks a chunk onto there but doesn't explain most of it. And, after watching every shot he’s taken this season, I’ve got nothing.

I realize this is a bit of a cop out but he’s definitely passing the eye test. He’s making strong runs and consistantly taking good shots inside the box. It’d be silly to argue that BWP isn’t a strong finisher (a skill I don’t put a whole lotta stock into in the first place) since he, ya know, tied the record for most goals in a season in 2014 with 27. I firmly believe he’ll bounce back. Shots like these will eventually start finding the back of the net. This early goal drought will surely put a dent in his tally at the end of the season but he should still put up a respectable number.

The Upside - Despite sitting in dead last of the overall MLS table, the Red Bulls trail the 4th place Toronto by 5 points and are only outside the 6th seed NYCFC by 3. 26 games is plenty of time to make up that difference provided their luck starts to change sooner than later. All of the pieces that powered their league-leading attack in 2015 still seem to be gelling and should start racking up some goals. Their defense, though weaker than last season's, should still play well enough to keep them in the playoff race provided at least two of their centerbacks can stay healthy.

To clarify, I’m not making the claim that the Red Bulls are ‘due’ to bounce back at any moment. I’m saying that next time New York takes 16 shots inside their opponent’s penalty box (like they did against Kansas City) they’ll probably come away with at least a goal to show for it. And once that starts happening, the points should follow.