Currently leading the league with 10 goals, the Houston Dynamo have boasted some rather unexpected firepower to start 2016. But is this offensive prowess from Owen Coyle’s side sustainable? Simply put, no. In this article I’ll look at some of Houston’s strengths as well as some problems that have gone undetected because of their hot streak.
Fancy numbers - Through 3 games, Houston has outperformed their expected goals by a whopping 4.58 goals. (xG numbers I use here are courtesy of the wonderful American Soccer Analysis. Follow them on Twitter @AnalysisEvolved. Here's Michael Caley's piece for a good primer on expected goals.) Their offense hasn't been bad - their 5.42 xG is good for 6th in the league - but they might not be the attacking powerhouse the first three games might have you believe. 5 goals on 8 shots against Dallas ain’t happening again. They’ve benefited greatly from some defensive blunders and streaky finishing. These numbers, though, are based on the minuscule sample size of the first three games.
The Good: Andrew Wenger - Most surprising of all in Houston's early offensive surge has been the revitalization of former no. 1 overall Superdraft pick Andrew Wenger. By the end of his time in Philadelphia it seemed as though Wenger would never quite put it together. During his four seasons in MLS coaches stuck Wenger in literally every outfield position and he never impressed at any of them. Needless to say, I was skeptical of his move to Houston. Early returns, however, are pretty darn good.
His movement from his new (hopefully permanent) right wing spot is surprisingly good. Take this shot against Vancouver in the first half. With both Whitecaps centerbacks occupied by Will Bruin, Wenger makes a strong near post run to receive the ball from Leonel Miranda.
Wenger does well to keep the ball under his control and fire a shot on target. If not for a good save from David Ousted, Wenger would have bagged his third goal of the season. This kind of movement and shot bodes well for Wenger the rest of this season and shows that his strong start to 2016 hasn't been a fluke.
Wenger probably won't continue at an MLS All-Star level all season. Taking the leap from rotation-level player to among the best in the league isn't particularly common for a 25-year-old. Regardless, that Houston was able to turn Wenger - who looked more destined for NASL than a consistent MLS player - into a useful winger is a positive sign for the team. Not all of Houston's acquisitions look quite as bright as Wenger, though.
The Bad: Cristian Maidana - Nominally a centeral attacking midfielder, Maidana's . Though he lines up as a no. 10 underneath the striker, Maidana operates almost exclusively on the flanks. While there’s nothing inherently wrong about a playmaker drifting around the field - Ignacio Piatti and Federico Higuain both do this a great deal - Maidana seems completely unable to find space centrally to receive passes. Often when the Argentinian drifts wide, he leaves swaths of empty space that none of his teammates runs into.
Creating space centrally for teammates by floating wide can be a useful tactic for an attacking midfielder but it seems like Maidana’s only move. He virtually never pops up in space beneath the striker. Considering passes coming from that area are far more likely to produce goals, that Maidana rarely attempts passes from there is a problem. Let’s compare charts of where Maidana receives the ball and passes with another no. 10 who likes to drift out wide, Ignacio Piatti (charts courtesy of fourfourtwo.com's StatsZone.)
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| Cristian Maidana versus Vancouver, passes received on the left and passes attempted/completed on the right |
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| Ignacio Piatti versus Vancouver, passes received on the left and passes attempted/completed on the right |
Piatti gravitates left but ultimately still operates above the box. From this zone he looks to pass into the box or create shooting oppurtunites for himself. Maidana, on the other hand, receives passes closer to the touchline and generally attempts passes into the box via crosses (he was third in MLS in crosses per 90 with 9.5.) Crossing is extremely inefficient (a topic thoroughly explored in the analytics community) and shouldn't be a no. 10's primary method of getting the ball to forwards. Combine this with his poor goal scoring record (a paltry .09 goals/90 minutes in his MLS career on 1.6 shots/90) and what you get is a rather limited player. Now, he will most likely begin to gel better with his teammates as the season progresses but most of these problems were prevalent during his time in Philadelphia. At the age of 29 he's not likely to change his ways, either.
The Ugly: Defense - Once Houston’s finishing starts regressing to the mean they don’t have much defensively to fall back on. Although they’ve allowed 15 shots per game, only 2 above the league average, those shots have been very high quality. Through 3 games the average shot they’ve conceded has been worth 0.13 xG which have been good for worst in the league in 2015. League average was about .11 xG per shot faced. These seem like slim margins but if you're allowing opponents 15 shots a game it’s the difference between conceding about 45 goals in a season versus 54.
So what are they doing to allow such high quality shots?
The Houston Dynamo don't stay particularly vertically compact. What this means is that they set up with a good deal of distance between there backline, midfield and attack. For most of the match, Vancouver sat deep and looked to counter. Houston would frequently send just Will Bruin and Maidana to pressure the Whitecaps' keeper and defenders. This kind of loose pressure without support from the midfield leaves large gaps for opponents to operate in.
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| Poor spacing from Houston following a Joe Willis goalkick |
On the right is an example of how the Dynamo set themselves up during their own goal kick. Their front six pushed high up the field while the backline remained deep. Vancouver won the header and immediately began running at Houston's defense. With the Dynamo's backline scrambling, the Whitecaps could easily created a dangerous chance for Rivero in the box. This kind of sloppy positioning is all too common with Owen Coyle's side.
If I’m a Houston fan, I’d be concerned that this result wasn’t just a one-off. Yes, it was a road game against a strong opponent. No, I’m not saying Houston’s not gonna put up a zero every week. But with a defense prone to conceding big chances and an attack weaker than early returns suggest, Owen Coyle had better make some adjustments before the losses begin pilling up.
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