Orlando's Defense Might Get Even Worse

Orlando City have had a rocky start. They currently sit at 1.23 points per game - good enough to hang around a playoff spot in a weak Eastern Conference but not a particularly impressive mark. Unfortunately for Adrian Heath’s side it may get even worse: Orlando have outperformed their expected goal differential by 5.78 so far this season, the highest margin in MLS (expected goal numbers courtesy of American Soccer Analysis. For an explanation of xG, check out Michael Caley's rundown here.)

While their attack has been decent - 8th in the league with 1.45 xG for per game - their defense has been dreadful. Through 12 games they’ve compiled a 1.97 xG against average, comfortably worst in the league. It’s early in the season and 12 games is a small sample size but giving up nearly 2 expected goals a game is awful. Over a full season it would be the the worst mark in all six years of American Soccer Analysis’s expected goal charts, beating out last year’s NYCFC season by 0.15. While Orlando have only conceded 1.58 actual goals per game, 6th worst in the league, their advanced numbers are rather concerning. To put it frankly: going into the Copa America break they’ve been bad and lucky. In this article I’m going to examine some of the factors that have contributed to Orlando City’s poor defense. 

Match Analysis: Toronto FC 1 - 2 Portland Timbers

The final match of Toronto FC's eight game road trip came Sunday in a close loss to the Portland Timbers. Through that initial stretch TFC largely defied preseason expectations both in the style of their play and their results - they compiled 11 points from 7 games on the back of a direct, defense-first approach. Against Portland, however, they flipped the script and played on the front foot in a new look 4-4-2 diamond. The Timbers have disappointed early in 2016 despite playing mostly the same players and system that won them MLS Cup last season. They eeked out a win through a coupl

Here I'm going to look at how Toronto controlled possession but failed to create dangerous chances while Portland

The 4-4-2 Diamond - So often a pregame lineup graphic will show teams lining up with a diamond midfield and nearly every time it ends up as a flat 4-4-2 with one CM venturing forward slightly more often. This happens often with USMNT lineups, for example. So it came as a surprise when TFC actually, truthfully played a diamond midfield with Michael Bradley at the base and Tsubasa Endoh at the point. More surprising is that it worked pretty darn well.

RSL's Poor Pressure versus LA

Saturday featured a battle between two teams with similar standings on the table but vastly different underlying numbers. The LA Galaxy and Real Salt Lake came into the game boasting a healthy 1.8 and 2.3 points per game, respectively. The numbers hinted that the two teams came about those marks in very different ways, however. LA had posted a league leading xG differential of about 6.9, hoisted primarily by their astonishing 3.44 xG against, by far the best in the league. RSL’s defense was not exactly as strong. They compiled 9.5 xG against through six games while only conceding six actual goals which was cause for some concern. RSL wasn’t “due” for last Saturday's 5 goal stomping but their defense wasn’t as solid as it may have seemed.

High Line, Low Pressure - Throughout the game, RSL demonstrated the difference between a defense playing with a high block and a defense playing a high press. Yes, RSL set up deep in LA’s half when the Galaxy’s defenders and center midfielders were on the ball yet they didn’t look to win the ball back high up the field. Instead they kind of, um, just stood around.

New York Red Bulls are Gonna be Just Fine (probably)

Early in the 2016 season has seen a number of surprising story lines developing - Columbus, Seattle and Portland all struggle while Colorado, RSL and Philly excel - but nothing comes as quite a shock as the New York Red Bulls occupying the bottom spot of the table. They’ve compiled a whopping 0.43 points per game and their -10 goal differential is 5 goals worse than the next closest team. A season can’t start much worse than Jesse Marsch’s side in 2016. But I believe they’re going to be alright. Their underlying numbers are much closer to 2015 tallies than you might assume.

Yes, their cold start has essentially ruled them out of the Supporters Shield race (they’d need to average and insane 2.2 points per game from here on out to match their 60 points from 2015) but I believe they’ll still make the playoffs and could seriously compete for MLS Cup once they get there.

Numbers courtesy of American Soccer Analysis

The Numbers - The expected goal numbers for NYRB show they’ve, frankly, underperformed like hell. Given the kinds of shots they’ve gotten and conceded they could have a goal difference closer to 2.5, good for 5th in the league. This early in the season all xG numbers are noisy and unreliable but the Red Bulls still clearly stick out. In this article I'll examine how much of this extreme difference is due to luck and how much I believe can be attributed to more tangible factors.

Is Philadelphia's Rebuild Ahead of Schedule?

Philadelphia's lineup vs. Orlando

Coming off tumultuous 2015 on and off the field, fans and analysts alike assumed the Philadelphia Union were looking to 2016 as a rebuilding year. Most season previews assumed it’d take at least a full season for Earnie Stewart to implement his new system and for the bevy of new signings to gel. Five games into 2016 and the Union have looked more competent than expected. After the 2-0 drubbing away to FC Dallas that seemed to confirm preseason expectations, Philadelphia have put together a solid four game stretch including wins over Columbus, New England and Orlando. So the question is: Is Philadelphia's rebuild ahead of schedule?

In this article I’ll look at some of the aspects of Philadelphia’s new system that have contributed to their promising start (focusing on their most recent game against Orlando) while also examining some more worrisome elements of their game.

Toronto FC's Long Ball Problem

No other team had as clear of goals in the offseason as Toronto FC: Defense, defense, defense. After conceding 58 goals in 2015, the joint-highest in MLS, TFC’s objectives were clear.  They snatched up four veteran MLSers in Clint Irwin, Drew Moor, Steven Beitashour and Will Johnson, all of whom either play in back or, in Johnson’s case, add some defensive bite to to the midfield. I wondered before the season whether Toronto’s tactical set-up caused their leaky defense, though, and not individual players. It turns out Vanney has significantly tweaked that, as well. Through four games TFC has sat much deeper and looked to play direct passes when they regain possession. While their defense does in fact look stronger this new approach hasn’t generated much in the way of attack. In this article I’ll look at some of the factors contributing to their offensive struggles.

Numbers - Greg Vanney has positioned his team in a much lower block than in 2015. Since Toronto is starting the season on an eight game road trip this isn't particularly shocking. But even compared solely to their away games last season this side has played far more direct. The chart below shows teams’ long ball tendencies with long balls per game on the X axis and long balls as a percentage of the teams’ total passes. The size of the bubble corresponds to the percentage at which they’re completing long balls.

Away from home in 2015 Toronto played 61.6 long balls a game which added up to 16% of their total passes, 12th and 13th in the league, respectively. So far this season this season they’ve played a whopping 79.1 long balls per game equalling 21% of their passes, both good for highest in the league. Additionally, they’re only completing long ball passes at a 37% clip this year versus 47% last season.

Houston's Overperforming Attack

Currently leading the league with 10 goals, the Houston Dynamo have boasted some rather unexpected firepower to start 2016. But is this offensive prowess from Owen Coyle’s side sustainable? Simply put, no. In this article I’ll look at some of Houston’s strengths as well as some problems that have gone undetected because of their hot streak.

Fancy numbers - Through 3 games, Houston has outperformed their expected goals by a whopping 4.58 goals. (xG numbers I use here are courtesy of the wonderful American Soccer Analysis. Follow them on Twitter @AnalysisEvolved. Here's Michael Caley's piece for a good primer on expected goals.) Their offense hasn't been bad - their 5.42 xG is good for 6th in the league - but they might not be the attacking powerhouse the first three games might have you believe. 5 goals on 8 shots against Dallas ain’t happening again. They’ve benefited greatly from some defensive blunders and streaky finishing. These numbers, though, are based on the minuscule sample size of the first three games.